After Prechter's interview there was a discussion with a trader that uses astronomy to guide his investment decisions. I have absolutely no experience with this, but thought it was interesting. Most of what he said was Greek to me, but there are a few key themes.
He basically is calling for a sell off early/mid next week then a rally to finish the week and next week followed by a larger sell off.
Here are my thoughts: Assuming that social mood and people's feelings drive the market prices, if lunar activity can affect us, then perhaps completely dismissing a strategy based on astronomy may be inappropriate. There are many scientists who agree that sunspots and other lunar phenomena can affect our world, so maybe there is something here. A famous trader, GANN, also used astronomy to help him trade. He was extremely successful and is still today studied intensely. I am interested in GANN and a lot of this sounds like some of Gann's teachings.
___________________________________________________________________
A summary of Tim, the Astro guy's interview on 1190am dallas
number of things happening next week...bearish in nature
Feb 6-9 Clustering of Planetary Stations (3 in 60 hours)...pretty tight clusteringMonday Mercury/Mars
Short term cycle culmination...lunar cycle full moon (trend change) Tuesday 7th
-Pretty hard to ignore when 3 clusters aligned as such...can anticipate a radical change in trend
-A couple of planetary conjunction...not necessarily bearish themselves but act as a focal point (Sun/Mercury conjunction) begins to define market trend when occurs
-Venus/Uranus conjunction (interesting planetary phenomenom)...usually see a bullish trend after that (this could occur on Thursday)
-A pullback beginning of week and rally thurs/Fri
-50% up Monday...not really expecting much
-Tuesday=key day to turn down
-May see push toward fresh resistance Monday
-Sun/Jupiter dynamics 1352 resistance
-Mercury/Venus 8th harmonic have been very important intraday...if that continues on Monday 1348 resistance...may see a little push
-would be very surprised if resistance there doesnt hold monday
-looking for short term pullback, rally then feb 20th sell off period as new configurations come into play
-Great for short term traders and nerve wracking for longer term players
-if adventurous buy some short term puts...longer term covered calls
-This coming week is reactivation of cardinal climax...line up of planets along 0 degrees of cardinal signs of zodiac (4 seasons)..."extra power points"
-Hades hits 0 degree of Cancer point and following day Venus hits 0 degree of other
-need to pay attention because may see seismic activity/other things outside the market that may provide fundamental short term shift
-in addition the massive solar flares that are occurring
-all this adds to the reason for expected volatilityf
-Still remain bullish on gold
-a lot of this may impact the dollar with expectations for dollar weakening/euro rally/gold rally
-when saturn retrogrades people usually get very conservative and tighten up on finances (sell)
www.financialcyclesweekly.com
box on website with free astro traders tip o the week
Friday, February 3, 2012
Robert Prechter on the radio - Summary
Today Prechter was on the radio which I captured below. Most of it is the same ole same ole, however his comments at the end struck me as interesting. He said that making finance the center of a family's life may be the biggest social mistake humans have made in a long time. He suggests not following the markets 24/7, to step back, take breaks, don't focus on your family's finances all the time...basically don't get burned out in the markets. He also makes reference to the markets practically being 24 hours a day with a lot of movement lately overnight (which I have noticed recently). The rest of his conversation was basically his same ole same ole. He admits to being early on this rally but is sticking to his guns expecting a big selloff.
Summary Notes on the fly:
-Most extreme Optimism in NAII, extremes in put/call, Not necessarily a signal of the top, but a warning
-"Don't want to listen to people telling you good earnings, europe is fixed, unemployment, etc"
-"We are bearish...However, I have been thinking short for last 50 s&p points, so I may not be the right person to talk to right now chuckle....metals may have ended their rally this morning...91% daily sentiment bulls on gold"
-deflationary...central banks continue to struggle keeping bad debt available...conquer the crash called it yaddy yadda...bond run has gone on so long though def want to stay on short end of the curve...so close to switchover in bond yields
-bonds should be good for intial decline of stock market but will be bad once it gets going...
-Volker years completely different environment today...yields at opposite extremes
-Despite optimism the last 3 years, borrowers still havent come out of woodwork=deflationary
-Deflationary drop Prechter sees is larger than the one most others are expecting...a little early to be talking about bull market on other side
-Socionomics... waves of social mood direct societal actions and thus news
-Europe in late 90's form union, was not a cause, but was a result of the extreme positive social mood of the 80s/90s...always thought it would fail b/c it was a result of not the cause of social moods therefore when social mood falls EU will fail as a result
-Asia is starting to show similar social changes...relatively extreme optimism in the 2000's
-If we were at an extreme bottom already we would see extreme pessimism...but we are at the opposite end of the spectrum
-Bottom will be like 1942 or 1972?...that's what we will loook for
-A lot of things/companies wont be standing (junk bonds/companies fail)...wait til people are disgusted and dont want to talk about the markets anymore...great buying opp
-Between now and that bottom expect riots and protests to continue and get worse...there will be hotbeds that trouble will come from...incidents will increase in volume and intensity....unsure where it will occur, just need to watch those areas that pick up
-Very difficult to predict in 1920s where WW2 spark would have come from...similar to today...easier to see in the 30s...unsure where to pinpoint hotbeds
-"Im a broken record...short term debt, Swiss govt, New Zealand, Singapore....stay away from Junk/munis/stocks...not a commodity buyer....2008 was high....62% correction (fibo)" cash is good too
-Time to buy latin america is when they are in trouble not when things seem rosy, thats when prices are highest
-Weve done a lot of studies on elections...as stock market goes, incumbent will remain in power...right now looking good for Obama...if market falls (is more likely) then he might be in trouble
-"Be safe, be worried, dont let the markets wear you out"
-Running finance into the center of everyones life I think is one of the worst things our society has done
If would have done that in the 20s and waited had it much better....cant do that at these price levels.
I missed a few things due to bad internet connection, but got most of it above...one thing seems for sure, they are very good at not being scared out of positions.
Summary Notes on the fly:
-Most extreme Optimism in NAII, extremes in put/call, Not necessarily a signal of the top, but a warning
-"Don't want to listen to people telling you good earnings, europe is fixed, unemployment, etc"
-"We are bearish...However, I have been thinking short for last 50 s&p points, so I may not be the right person to talk to right now chuckle....metals may have ended their rally this morning...91% daily sentiment bulls on gold"
-deflationary...central banks continue to struggle keeping bad debt available...conquer the crash called it yaddy yadda...bond run has gone on so long though def want to stay on short end of the curve...so close to switchover in bond yields
-bonds should be good for intial decline of stock market but will be bad once it gets going...
-Volker years completely different environment today...yields at opposite extremes
-Despite optimism the last 3 years, borrowers still havent come out of woodwork=deflationary
-Deflationary drop Prechter sees is larger than the one most others are expecting...a little early to be talking about bull market on other side
-Socionomics... waves of social mood direct societal actions and thus news
-Europe in late 90's form union, was not a cause, but was a result of the extreme positive social mood of the 80s/90s...always thought it would fail b/c it was a result of not the cause of social moods therefore when social mood falls EU will fail as a result
-Asia is starting to show similar social changes...relatively extreme optimism in the 2000's
-If we were at an extreme bottom already we would see extreme pessimism...but we are at the opposite end of the spectrum
-Bottom will be like 1942 or 1972?...that's what we will loook for
-A lot of things/companies wont be standing (junk bonds/companies fail)...wait til people are disgusted and dont want to talk about the markets anymore...great buying opp
-Between now and that bottom expect riots and protests to continue and get worse...there will be hotbeds that trouble will come from...incidents will increase in volume and intensity....unsure where it will occur, just need to watch those areas that pick up
-Very difficult to predict in 1920s where WW2 spark would have come from...similar to today...easier to see in the 30s...unsure where to pinpoint hotbeds
-"Im a broken record...short term debt, Swiss govt, New Zealand, Singapore....stay away from Junk/munis/stocks...not a commodity buyer....2008 was high....62% correction (fibo)" cash is good too
-Time to buy latin america is when they are in trouble not when things seem rosy, thats when prices are highest
-Weve done a lot of studies on elections...as stock market goes, incumbent will remain in power...right now looking good for Obama...if market falls (is more likely) then he might be in trouble
-"Be safe, be worried, dont let the markets wear you out"
-Running finance into the center of everyones life I think is one of the worst things our society has done
If would have done that in the 20s and waited had it much better....cant do that at these price levels.
I missed a few things due to bad internet connection, but got most of it above...one thing seems for sure, they are very good at not being scared out of positions.
Labels:
$SPX,
2011 Market Top,
Bonds,
Gold
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
What is up with Volume?
There has been a lot of discussion on lower volumes in the media and elsewhere. I too am seeing lower volumes recently. Clicking on the link above or looking at the first chart below there are a few key things to notice. Also, Blogger changed its format so it may be best to right click on charts and open in new tabs or screens...pain in the butt, I know!

1) The volume coming out of the '09 bottom was the highest of any of the major up moves at well over 3B shares/day (averaging around 4B). The volume coming out of the 2010 lows was around 3B shares/day. The volume coming out of Oct 2011's lows has steadily declined from around 3B to now well below it. This looks like classic waning volume as prices rise and is bearish longer term. Technical Analysis 101 states that rising prices with lowering volume is a bear sign whereas rising price and volume (such as early 2009) is bullish.
2) Volume on selloffs is significantly higher than volume on advancements. I am not sure what this guy with his CFA is talking about. He must be looking at something different than me. Financial Sense Volume Article
3) The 50 day volume moving average is now clearly in a downtrend since the October lows. That means volume is falling as price has risen. The volume 50 day moving average is now lower than it has been in the past few years at well below 3B shares/day. Zero Hedge put out an article about that as well. Zero Hedge Article
4) On top of volume we have a price momentum indicator (MACD) showing big divergence with October's price highs. Even though price has made a higher high above October, momentum indicators are showing warning signs about the last month's moves.
5) Price is setting up a classic rising wedge pattern. Typically these break down. The pattern has a lot of overlap and moves at a slower rate than the previous trend (which was August's down move). Watch the red dotted trendline for a breakdown. If so, get out.
6) Below I also have a longer term volume chart with a few different indices. You can see on everyone that they are all falling in volume (as prices rise) and currently sit at multi year lows. This chart is on a weekly basis with the volume lines (yellow) the 6 month moving average (26 weeks).

I think the point can easily be made that something is up with volume, especially when compared to recent history. Looking at the second chart, some volume is back to late 90's levels!!!
I saw this interview today which I found interesting for a few reasons. 1) The man has been in the game as long as anyone. 2) I have studied his On Balance Volume Indicator and found it interesting to hear him talk about it. 3) He agrees that volume is not supporting price and we should be falling soon as a result. Joe Granville Interview

1) The volume coming out of the '09 bottom was the highest of any of the major up moves at well over 3B shares/day (averaging around 4B). The volume coming out of the 2010 lows was around 3B shares/day. The volume coming out of Oct 2011's lows has steadily declined from around 3B to now well below it. This looks like classic waning volume as prices rise and is bearish longer term. Technical Analysis 101 states that rising prices with lowering volume is a bear sign whereas rising price and volume (such as early 2009) is bullish.
2) Volume on selloffs is significantly higher than volume on advancements. I am not sure what this guy with his CFA is talking about. He must be looking at something different than me. Financial Sense Volume Article
3) The 50 day volume moving average is now clearly in a downtrend since the October lows. That means volume is falling as price has risen. The volume 50 day moving average is now lower than it has been in the past few years at well below 3B shares/day. Zero Hedge put out an article about that as well. Zero Hedge Article
4) On top of volume we have a price momentum indicator (MACD) showing big divergence with October's price highs. Even though price has made a higher high above October, momentum indicators are showing warning signs about the last month's moves.
5) Price is setting up a classic rising wedge pattern. Typically these break down. The pattern has a lot of overlap and moves at a slower rate than the previous trend (which was August's down move). Watch the red dotted trendline for a breakdown. If so, get out.
6) Below I also have a longer term volume chart with a few different indices. You can see on everyone that they are all falling in volume (as prices rise) and currently sit at multi year lows. This chart is on a weekly basis with the volume lines (yellow) the 6 month moving average (26 weeks).

I think the point can easily be made that something is up with volume, especially when compared to recent history. Looking at the second chart, some volume is back to late 90's levels!!!
I saw this interview today which I found interesting for a few reasons. 1) The man has been in the game as long as anyone. 2) I have studied his On Balance Volume Indicator and found it interesting to hear him talk about it. 3) He agrees that volume is not supporting price and we should be falling soon as a result. Joe Granville Interview
Labels:
$SPX,
$WLSH,
2011 Market Top,
Volume
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)