Bear case losing ground...again.

The bear scenario laid out in the previous blog post (in blue) is day by day losing it's probability of occuring. After today's move we are at a do or die point (which actually makes for the best trading opportunities). A straddle at today's close would help capture either one of these scenarios which both call for significant moves in the upcoming weeks.

Bottomline is a downturn must occur as soon as possible (tomorrow or Monday). Any significant move up will likely put the bear case to bed and result in new highs. Right now it is up in the air if the market will continue up to new highs in a final 5th wave or if the bear market will finally begin again (yes, I have been waiting for it for awhile).

The other option (not on the chart) is that this move down and now smaller move up is an A,B of an A,B,C which would suggest eventually the market moves lower (but only in a corrective mode before moving on to new highs).

Good Luck