Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Current Technical Viewpoint



This is a chart I did yesterday outlining the two major things I see in the market's technical structure. It is actually pretty exciting because trades like this don't come around that often. There are a few key places that stops can be set to help make this trade a 4x+ reward/risk!

1) In green we are consolidating after a very quick bull move in October. This triangle could be considered a bull flag with an expected move north once the triangle is complete. This should occur in the next few days/week, if so. A solid break above the green upper trendline would give more confidence in this count. We were very close today. Watch out for a potential trendline backtest if the breakout does occur.

2) The potential bearish head and shoulders set up is equally apparent on the chart. This expectation would take the probabilistic lead with a breakdown below the uptrend of the last few months (currently around $1240). Watch for a backtest here as well (of the lower trendline).

These two scenarios are basically polar opposites, but can still be taken advantage of. One way to do this is to sit on the sidelines until such break occurs (either up or down) out of the triangle. This should allow a potential 30 pts+ in expected profit. Another way is to buy a straddle (if you are into options). This will allow you to capitalize no matter which way the market goes (you just want to make sure that it in fact does move).

Of note too are the indicators at the bottom of the chart. Both of them are showing bullish signs by making higher highs (not highlighted, but apparent). A breakdown of this could help signal an upcoming trend change and preempt a break of the price trendline...just something to keep an eye on.

Finally, volume isn't on this chart, but it has been falling somewhat during this triangle period. That supports the triangle theory. However, volume has been heavier on the down days (such as Nov 8).

Good luck!

Thursday, November 10, 2011

MTA webcast series summary: Linda Raschke - Relative Strength Strategies

This presentation was on November 10, 2011 on "Traditional and Unique ways to use Relative Strength"

Hit me up if you would like the slides that accompany it or have any questions
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Presenter's Bio: Linda Bradford Raschke is President of LBRGroup, Inc., a CTA, and president of LBR Asset Management, a CPO. She began her professional trading career in 1981 as a market maker in equity options. LBRGroup has been a registered CTA since 1992. Ms. Raschke was recognized in Jack Schwager's critically acclaimed book, The New Market Wizards, and is known for her own top selling book, Street Smarts - High Probability Short-Term Trading Strategies. She has been featured in dozens of financial publications, radio and financial television programs, has served on the Board of Directors for the Market Technician's Association and was President of the American Association of Professional Technical Analysts. Ms. Raschke has presented her research and lectured on trading for the Managed Futures Association, American Association of Professional Technical Analysists, Bloomberg, Market Technician's Association, International Federation of Technical Analysis, Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, TAG, Omega World, International Online Trading Expo, AIQ, Futures Conference, and has lectured in over 16 different countries for Dow Jones.

Relative Strength Summary Suggested Rules:
-For investors look at 6 & 12 month look back periods; 4 weeks is the worst period (least return)
-Be careful as using it increases Beta on both sides (gains and losses)
-Works best in up-trending markets with good volume
-Works in stocks, sectors, and commodities
-Be extra careful using after an extended trend as rotation will often take place at peaks and troughs
-Doesn't work in downtrends (longs are already loaded up...liquidation can be quick)
-Can use on short term trades using first 30 minute strength
-Very good strategy with relative performance models that follow benchmarks and /or are constrained by investment options.
-Needs constant updating depending on time frame

Slide 8- Dax made a lower high in late Aug and thus showed relative weakness, which set up a good trade into the Sept lows. Nasdaq showed strength by not making lower low early Oct like other indices. Rallied strongest into October as well.

Slide 10- 3M vs Intel early Oct lows...INTC didn't make new lows and was a lot stronger during the rally...AMZN similar...both made higher lows vs. lower low of 3M

Slide 11 (my 2 cemts)- Coke vs. Pepsi...great tool for sector/industry analysts...she used 180ma just for structure (could be your pay period or performance period? or any MA you wanted)...swap out s&p with your benchmark. Potential to look at st.dev of ratio around 180 day to help know when to scale back and manage money? Divergences may be good signals too.

Slide 17: answer=Amazon. The tough think is you had to pay up for AMZN since it gapped and took out near term highs...but the thrust helps you make that decision.

Slide 19: Walmart was not overbought just b/c it went over 75 on RSI...Alcoa would have killed you, but Walmart stayed up.

Slide 22: Volume by 30 minutes (vertical) by day (horizontal)

Slide 23&24: 7am time period on futures pretty good at showing trend of day; is it holding or failing or oscillating?

Slide 29: Franc long out-performing well before it went parabolic...relative strength helped show it; Home Run trade!

Q&A:
-Even though correlations are at all time highs, RS still works...all things can go up, but some still outperform
- Gary Anderson's done a lot of work on Relative Strength (google him)
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Wednesday, November 2, 2011

MTA webcast series summary: Intermarket Relationships

Below is an email summary I prepared of the latest MTA webcast presentation by John Murphy from October 19 2011.
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Hey all. Today I attended a webcast presentation by John Murphy (of stockcharts.com & MTA). John has been around a long time and is famous for his intermarket relationships analysis (one of which is required reading for the CMT). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Murphy_(economist)

If you are at all interested in the macro environment or economics and how it ties to the stock market, then his intermarkets book, may be for you. It is great at tying together the financial markets, business cycle, and technical analysis all together.
http://www.amazon.com/Intermarket-Analysis-Profiting-Relationships-Trading/dp/0471023299/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1319048257&sr=8-1

I have attached the slides, which are pretty self explanatory and an easy flip through to see what's going on with a lot of different markets (contact me to obtain). You likely have already recognized some of them, but it helps to put correlations in easy to read charts. Below is a short summary of the slides in pretty much order with the presentation...

Intro: "You have to go back to the 30's to find similar correlations as today". Most "traditional" relationships have broken down in the last decade (starting with the Asian Crisis). The reason behind this is the deflationary theme we are currently in compared to the primarily inflationary period of the past. He cites 3 major deflationary events recently, the Japanese bubble bursting (1989), the asian contagion, and the US property bubble burst.

Slides 4&5: There was a paradigm shift around the time of the Asian Crisis. Bond yields and stocks started to move together. He cites a deflationary environment as the primary reason. He doesn't expect this relationship to revert back to the "norm" until deflation is out of the picture. Slide 5 shows that same relationship in 2011. In august 2011, bond yields didn't confirm the rally, which gave a hint stocks would see new lows.

Slides 6&7: Stocks and Commodities are positively correlated (extremely). This has not occurred since the 1930s. There is no other real good example in history and is one of the reasons he sees us in a deflationary environment. Commodities, like yields, seem to be leading stocks. He comments simply that Bernanke wouldn't talk about it so much if it wasn't a concern and prevalent.
One of the most reliable inverse relationships is the dollar/commodities; Recently a similar relationship has occurred between the dollar and stocks.

Slides 11&12; Stocks peak when energy outperforms...This occurred through the summer 2011. Rotation into safety, also has occurred...too early to tell if rotation into safety is over and downturn is "complete", but that cycle is longer term. Stocks are in red on slide 11 and the business cycle is in green.

Slides 14+; US stocks outperform foreign stocks when the dollar rises; however, they both fall. The Euro is something like 56% of the US Dollar Index and the majority of the 5 components.

Euro stocks are leading the US stocks right now

Ratio charts are a great way to see what is really happening and driving prices (I agree).

Q&A session...
-A China revaluation would result in inflation in America & decline of the dollar

-Use the 10 year bond when comparing across countries because most others don't have 30 year bonds.

-Expects "deflationary environment to continue until proven otherwise". Will look at bond/stock relationship to help tell.

Take care everyone and good luck! Let me know if you have any questions.
Chad