Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Gold is bearish in the news, but bullish in the charts?

People in the mainstream media have started to become bearish of gold.  Perhaps it is because of the almost 1 year downtrend in its price?  Media is notorious for noticing trends nearer their turning points than nearer their onset.  I believe Gold may be a current example of this and actually be setting up a bullish signal versus a bearish one.

The chart below shows the price of gold over the last two years, including the seeming bull flag/triangle that is currently in formation.

Gold chart link

I see major support in the $1530 area, which once again today held.  This support zone allows a potentially good trading opportunity in gold.  With support just 2% below, a low risk higher reward buy opportunity may be presenting itself.  A purchase of gold here with a stop at $1520 (aggressive traders) or at $1470 (longer term traders) could be a good play as I am seeing bullish signs in the chart (in addition to the contrarian buy signal set by the media).

Besides the positive longer term divergence and solid support, a bullish flag/triangle looks to be forming with the red and black trendlines helping show points of recognition.  A break above the red downsloping line and then the black resistance line (notice the parallelism with the other black support line) would help solidify the bullish case.  A move beyond the recent high ($1900) would be a likely a target of such a breakout.

If all of this comes to fruition then it likely would mean a rally in equities as well, given the high correlations between gold and the equity markets.

Good Luck!

No comments:

Post a Comment