Friday, June 5, 2009

LEN Triangle Breakdown?

Yesterday and Today Lennar has been showing relative weakness to the markets. On top of that it looks to have broken down from a long 6 month triangle. I want to get a little more confirmation because it still may be a little too early to tell if this is a true breakdown or not. A triangle pattern is typically a consolidation pattern (which this looks like) that eventually continues in the same direction as the previous trend (down).

The price action supports it, but the volume did not pick up on the breakdown as expected, and the general market is still in an uptrend which could act as a sort of buoy for the stock, at least temporarily. Also, on a linear scale (almost all my charts are done on a log scale) the price is sitting right on the lower ascending triangle trendline support; so it hasn't broken thru it yet. So maybe give LEN a few more days.

On the positive side, the RSI and MACD both have negative patterns suggesting a short may be a decent play here. I also really like that longer term trendline that came into play in May.

A stop should be placed above the upper triangle trend line for conservative players. A tighter stop may be placed above the lower ascending triangle (inside the triangle) as price should not intrude back into that zone. Also, a good stop guide could be that longer term trendline acting as resistance thruout all of May.

The link is to the live annotated chart (you may have to have a stockcharts.com account to see all my markings).


4 comments:

  1. Finished down 6% by end of day with possible confirmation. A backtest of the longer term downtrend resistance line would be nice. Clicking on this blog's title will take you to the live annotated chart.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Today it is up 6% possibly starting the backtest process...will give it a few days before I act.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Up day in the market, down day in this stock, think I will act. First target $7.50, but will follow volume closely to make sure it is picking up along with the decline. Stop loss currently above $10.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Bought on the 11th and closed on the 24th for a slight gain. The triangle broke down, but the move was pretty sloppy and slow without the volume I was looking for. Also, a few of the downtrend lines broke up on me giving me a close signal.

    ReplyDelete