Based on the attached historical chart, we need at least a doubling of the dividend yield to get back to the long term average of 4.5% and at least a tripling to 6.5% to get back to the historical market bottoming points. Notice the historical change since 1991, the bubble years? This date marked when the ratio left its historical precedent between 3.0 and 6.0% average yield and went to no man's land below 3.0% for 10+ years. As recently as the early 80's yields were 6.0%+. In the 1932 bottom yields rocketed to 16%!
In order to double the dividend yield, you either have to have an increase in dividend payouts (not even close to beginning to occur--in fact the opposite is occuring; businesses are cutting dividends), a drop in the stock market by 50%+, or a combination of both. In all liklihood both will occur, but we are far away from dividends being raised.
This chart is another very bearish indicator if history can be trusted.
Another way to think about this is the period since 1991 has been a statistical anomaly and needs to be corrected.
Enjoy!
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