The hidden Decline in the Stock Market

Below I have created a very interesting (and I think very telling) chart. I have taken the S&P500 index and adjusted it for inflation by using the price of Gold. The green line graph is the $SPX as typically measured, in US Dollars (at $1092 as of the time of the chart). The candlestick graph is that of the S&P500 divided by Gold which takes out the $USD part of the equation.

This chart is very telling from the standpoint of an American investor. The Rally of the past few months is what I am coining, "the rogue rally". Since July the market has risen significantly, but this chart shows only a portion of that was for reasons other than the $USD decline. In fact, this chart peaked in August suggesting that since then the primary driver of the rally has been the decline in the $USD (increase in Gold's price).

If this is true then in fact the market peaked in real dollars in August and has been making lower lows ever since. Another way of thinking about this is that Gold (inflation) has been rising faster than the market and that an investor is actually losing ground from a purchasing power perspective since August.

A theory resulting from this is if the dollar is in a bottoming process (Gold Topping) then I expect the market to also be in a topping process. Also, the spread between the two indices is pretty wide. I expect them to converge over time as they did during the decline.

The same divergences I am seeing in the cash index are also showing up in inflation adjusted charts as well. Just another tool supporting a topping process may be playing out.

Another version of the options index

I read an article today that got me thinking about this index. The theory is that most speculators buy call options near the tops and buy put options near the bottoms. Therefore, you can use an options index as a contrarian indicator. Even better since 2004, the CBOE has given us data that allows us to split equity options and index options. Simplistically the big boys use the options index and the speculators use the equity index more. The speculators help us to pick euphoric highs and lows since they are usually wrong at the tops and bottoms.

Looking at the chart and the history there is some pretty favorable data that may help us confirm the next top. The way to use this chart is not to look for a peak or trough in the index and call a bottom or a top, but to use the chart to help confirm a top or bottom and tell you when things are getting a little out of hand. I have also added moving averages to help smooth out the data.

Right now the index and 30 day MA are below .60. This has only occurred a few times in the past few years and not once since the 2007 top. Those times have also in all 4 instances called decent few months tops.

This is just another indicator that is helping me get comfort that the market's top will soon be upon us.

Market Update 10-16-09; Still think top is soon.

I continue to think the top is very close. There are now numerous technical signals that lead me to this. For one, there is a possible 5 wave move in its final gasp. Also, volume continues to be weak. Divergences are all still very strong. And, all the markets are still in typical retrace area. See the chart below and compare to the former post Market Update 8-31-2009. Not much has changed as far as technical signals when looking at the two charts.

It will be interesting to see if the Dow closes above 10K today, my guess is yes. I may put a small put on the market at the close just for fun.

On another note Gold and the US Dollar also look to be at potential turning points. I heard on CNBC today that Tiffanies is going to be selling gold bricks, and Pisani said "looks to be the top in gold", which I agree with. There are other reasons to think gold is close to topping as well. The reason I mention the Dollar and Gold is that all these markets are interconnected and should all turn around the same time.

Good Luck

5 waves down last week; Expecting another similar move tomorrow

2:30pm 9-30-09 Link updated. Updated Count...3 leg down instead of 5 says something else is going on.


I was out last week, but noticed that the moves over the last 3 days last week seem to trace out an impulsive wave. Similar to my post back in June, this setup is looking comparable. I see a five wave move down off of a new high price of $1080. Initial five wave moves always have another five wave move to follow after a correction. So far it looks like today is that correction and thus I expect another five wave move south in the days to come. Pretty crazy to call a big down move after a hefty move up like today, but we are still in retrace territory and the waves say it so. A safe short would be right now with a stop very close above.

Options Index indicator topping point?

Quick post but this index is looking toppy. It has been pretty reliable confirming tops and bottoms previously. Something to watch out for...

Market Update 8-31-2009 Summer Almost over and so Might be the Rally?

It has been a month since I last updated and expected a 10%+ rally in the markets to the retrace zone. So far that has played out quite nicely. The corrective moves I expected in between haven't been the cleanest, but overall the continuation of the summer rally has not disappointed and has satisfied my expectations. Compare the attached chart to the one from last month.

Right now, though, there are reasons to be cautious. It looks like the market may be playing out a 4th wave triangle the last few days which would be a warning sign that the top could be coming soon.

There are also other reasons to be cautious such as the negative divergence showing between a few key indicators and price (see chart). Also, bullishness is at a peak as the Bullish %s are higher than they have been since 2006 and anytime since the rally began. Another item I continue to watch is the weak volume. It is expected over the summer and in particular August, but it has to raise a caution flag as the rally continues on less and less volume.

I have also attached a longer term chart of the markets below. Notice how miniscule the rally of 40-50% looks compared to where we were in 2007 as well as 2000. This rally is following very closely to what occurred in 1931 after the crash but before another huge brutal move down to the ultimate 1933 bottom which is another reason to be cautious.

Summary: I will be looking to get short before I get long, but will wait for more confirmation before I make that trade. Now is a good time to take any profits on longs as the risk reward is now high for those positions.

GMR June 2009 Quarterly Update - Warning Signs?

Blog links to transcript of earnings call...

GMR reported earnings July 30 for the quarter ended June 2009. Overall it was a little surprising...not necesarilly negative (yet), just a little surprising and cause for caution.

The one thing I had been banking on for at least another half year has ceased...GMR will drop its dividend policy significantly down to $0.50/year from $0.50/quarter. Or, from a 20%+ Yield down to a 6% or so yield. The CEO gave multiple reasons including 1) using that cash for other opportunities (acquisitions), 2) the market being terrible (spot rate market), 3) the yield being too high ("paying $2.00 divy on $8.00 share price is stupid" was his quote).

Here are my thoughts on this...

When I saw the earnings report the night before and read that they were dropping the dividend I expected a big sell off in the stock. After hours the stock peaked down 10%, but at the end of the next day (July 30) finished down around 7%, which honestly is not that bad considering its volatility. Also, the sell off was pretty much all after hours, not much happened during the day or while the conf. call was going on as far as price goes. More so, over the weekend and by the end of the day Monday, the 1st, the stock gained all of it back. It seems as though people updated their cash flow models and realized the fundamentals are still coming out positive and the only thing that has really changed is the dividend policy...which is all pretty much true.

That is exactly what should happen when you change just your payout ratio. In fact, many models will give credit for plowing back that cash into the business versus paying out (depending on discount rate used).

At the end of the day and if you read my investment philosophy, price speaks loudest and price has not said anything negative about their plowback decision, so the street obviously is not that upset about it and/or already had the news in their models.

But, here is the meat of my thoughts...

GMR has a history of buying back shares and doing acquisitions. The CEO also said it is "stupid" to pay a $2 divy on an $8 stock...which is debatable. BUT, just 3 to 6 months ago, the market, stock price, and divy policy were all the same and they chose to pay out cash in dividends versus keep the cash. So, why the change of heart so soon, when nothing has really changed at all since 6 months ago. My thoughts are they are going to try a different route with the cash such as buying back shares and/or they already are working on some target acquistions and would much rather use cash than equity to pay for it (especially with the stock price this low). It was comforting to hear the CEO say equity is the most expensive way to pay on the call. If one of these 2 routes is taken, I will be fine with it.

Buying back shares for a lot of people is the smarter thing to do because of the double taxation on dividends...again debatable (primarily true, but there is value in getting income streams versus relying on the markets for price). So, hopefully they will start buying back shares again. I will be able to tell thru the quarterly filings.

If next quarter they are not buying back shares and not hoarding cash and only paying down their cheap 5% debt, then I will have a red flag on my plate. It would tell me that they are more worried about their debt load than other uses for their cash...especially at their such low interest costs.

SUMMARY: I continue to hold, hoping that they will be buying back shares which should thoeretically lift the share price, but I am now cautious because of the surprise change of heart with seemingly little change in any of the 3 factors named by the CEO. Quick math: currently with 54MM shares, each $54MM of EBITDA should be worth $1 in share price...we shall see by October.

Let me know if any questions.

Market Update - The Bigger Picture

It's been awhile since I updated the current market status and after 3 months, it's finally doing something. The market looks to be making its final move up after a sideways correction. The sideways correction from May thru June can be considered "the pullback" I was waiting for. Now it is time for the final leg up.

An easy target would be to say A=C which would be about 33% or from $870, quick math around $1100. Another target is the fibo retrace zone between $1000 and $1200. I am waiting for a pullback then going to get slightly long. As with anything dealing with the markets, nothing is certain, and this initial leg up (when it completes), satisfies a minimum requirement. I am not saying that it is the top, just that the possibility is there. I will be able to tell based on the ensuing pullback.

Something else to notice is that all the markets are in a similar spot and we can look for clues based on them. As always the nasdaq is leading the way. Also, the bullish percent should show a topping point above 70, but look for possible divergence. One final indicator that is giving a clue is the RSI which is showing the first point since the bear above 70.

Getting ready to get long for a 10% or so move...

Good Luck.

Possible Head and Shoulders Top Forming Part 2

Two weeks later and the pattern continues to play out. We dipped down to test the neckline again, which was expected, at which point the media and everyone else jumped on the head and shoulders play (usually a sign that it won't pan out). I think it still has an outside chance to, though.

Here's what would need to happen...the market would need to stay below $930 (the previous right shoulder high), and once again it would need to dip below $880. With the neckline now changed, the target is actually lower in the $810 range.

The other option is that the market topped today as the former neckline's retest and we continue down to play out the original head and shoulders pattern I posted on the previous post 2 weeks ago (Absolute Strategies: Possible Head and Shoulders Top Forming)

Possible Head and Shoulders Top Forming

I have put most of the explanations on the attached chart, but the market may be trying to form a head and shoulders topping pattern. It is still too early to tell, but wanted to get it on the radar. It should take a few more weeks before confirmation.

If we fall below $880 again, where there is significant support dating back 6 months+, then this chart may be very valid. I have put in blue dotted lines showing the possible path the market could take to validate this pattern.

Ideally the market will fall below $880 and come back to retest the "neckline" trendline at which point would be a very high risk reward short around $890 with a stop above $900 and a target of $830.

Stay Tuned. You can click on the title link to see how the pattern progresses in real time.

Market Update 6-23; A turn for the worse update

Update 6-26: Bounce was larger than expected and any move above $927 will kill scenario 3 bear market.

Quick update and chart on my post last week. The move down has satisfied its initial requirements with two 5 wave moves down very similar to what I posted should happen on the 16th (see chart then and now). Therefore, I am taking some money off the short table and moving to wait and see mode.

Now comes the hard and sometimes frustrating part...how the ensuing correction looks will give me an idea if 1) this down move is over and we get another big move north, 2) just the initial decline before a bounce and then another similar move down, or 3) the start of the huge decline. So basically 3 possibilities 2 with near term upside, one with long term upside, and one with long and short term downside...so no clue at this point, which is why I am in wait and see mode.

But, last and this week is how you make money trading the waves!

Put Call Ratio - Fear creeping back into market?

The put call ratio has been one of my favorite indicators. It started to fail toward the end of the bear this year and not giving as reliable signals, but it looks like it may be coming back into play.

As you can see in the chart, the put/call ratio had bottomed out below its long term lower support of around .85 puts for every 1 call bought on the options market. The indicator is now in an uptrend and is quickly climbing back into its 2008 average range of around 1 to 1 puts to calls. This could be telling us that the market is becoming more fearful. On the chart I have also drawn vertical lines at market tops and bottoms. Historically this ratio has helped call these tops and bottoms as you can also see on the chart. Also, you can see that the indicator shows where ultimate fear occurred, which was in the October decline. It is rare for the market to be so complacent as it was the last 3 months, which could be a sign that the rally wasn't going to have the kind of fear it needed to continue indefinitely.

If this market is about to fall again, I expect this ratio's moving averages to approach the 1.25 puts to calls resistance as it did at previous bottoms.

Market Correlations - An essay on Oil Prices

In my Investment Philosophy (right side of the blog) I lay out a few examples of why markets are never fairly valued. In this blog post I will show another blatant example of this and explain what is the driving factor behind the rising price of oil.

In the chart below I have laid out the price of Oil ($WTIC) in black, the price of Gold ($GOLD) in gold color, and the price of the inverted US Dollar ($USD) in Red. The chart is over the last 3 month basis with daily closing prices. The first thing you should notice and the main point of this post is that since about April 20th these 3 markets have been eerily tied at the hip. As the US Dollar has fallen (inverted on the chart to show more clearly), the price of Gold and Oil have gone up.

As you can see oil, gold, and the decline in the dollar are all related somehow. The common denominator in the group is the $USD (since oil and gold are priced in US Dollars). Therefore, the move higher in both oil and gold prices is directly and this chart shows almost 100% related to the decline in the US Dollar's value. If you would have bought gold or oil in the past 2 months on supply and demand projections, peak oil concerns, China, or any other so called fundamental reason, you would have been wrong. The only fundamental reason to have bought those two assets is a play on the decline in the US Dollar; Any other reason and your gains are based less on a correct forecast, and more out of luck. This chart shows, at least lately, that if you want to know where the price of Gold and Oil will be, don't look to the fundamentals of those markets, look the the US Dollar market.

Market Update 6-16-09; A turn for the worse

Just a week and a half ago I was more bullish than bearish. And now I am more bearish than bullish! I will explain why below, but first some quotes from my June 4th market update post. I will follow that with a detailed explanation of why I have switched back into the bear camp giving you some insight into how I come up with some of my forecasts and why it seems I may flip flop so much. (I know some of you may not understand all my technical jargon, but hopefully it will give you some insight into how and why I make the decisions I do). I have a chart to help explain as well.

Quotes from 2 weeks ago...
"There is not really a reason to necessarily expect as large a rally as I previously laid out. The markets seem to have completed their first pattern up early this week with a good correction on Wednesday, possibly still playing out thru tomorrow (or completed Wednesday afternoon). What this could mean is that the first wave up is complete and the 2nd correction down is nearing completion (out of a total of 5) awaiting a 3rd wave up tomorrow or Monday."

"I will need to be nimble the next few weeks though, as this thing could turn on a dime, and when it does, that is all she wrote.

"The safest bet is to buy with a breach of $950 which if I am correct could come tomorrow or Monday/early Tuesday (I went ahead and bought because of personal reasons and because I know at which point to sell if I am proven wrong--right now $900). If $950 is overtaken then all liklihood we are in the powerful 3rd move up and price should not intrude below $950 until this summer rally is over."

So, looking back at these comments, they were pretty spot on with Thursday, the 4th a big up day and Friday a pull back just breaching $950 briefly. Some choppiness ensued Mon/Tues/Wed which I suspected was a 2nd wave correction, and then Wed midday and Thurs took off in my suspected wave 3 up above $950 (the move had a clean 5 waves up). All is well, so I thought. A correction after that move up was expcted, which occured Friday, the 12th, with a move back up by the end of the day. So far 3 waves up, two nice impulsive ones with one corrective choppy one in between--what I expected. But something happened over the weekend...the markets gapped down Monday morning with a continuation of the correction instead of up in a continuation of the 3rd wave up, and quickly made new lows below $927 which is possibly a major breaking point of the bull. At that point I became more bearish than bullish. With the bust of $927, the count is sufficient to call a top at Thursday, June 11th's $956.

The next question is will it be the ultimate top of the summer rally or just the end of the first major move up...that is still too early to call, but after today's completed 5 waves (see chart attached - a beautiful 3 day move down, actually), it is very likely the next few weeks will have at least a downward bias.

I have attached 2 charts, one is my normal wave count and expectation chart and the 2nd is a zoomed in view of the last week with what looks like a very clean 5 wave move down from a new high of $956. This implies the start of something larger to the downside. I will know more once the correction of the 5 wave move completes later this week.

Summary: Some major damage was done to the bull case over the weekend with prices not continuing their trend up from $927. If today's low was just put in at $912, then this first 5 wave move was $45 points which would put the initial target somewhere south of $890. I will know more as this down move plays out.

Volume Analysis and 2009 top warning?

Update July 29 2009: Volume is now at a level that previous tops have occurred. This may be a warning that going long right now is a risky endeavor. Click on blog post to see updated chart.

Attached is a volume chart I created to spot tops and bottoms during the 2008 bear. I decided to update it thru today to see what it shows...

As you can see since late March the volume of the total market has been declining as price went up. This is not a good sign for the market. Sustainable rallies occur when prices rise on increased volume, not on lower volume. What this is showing is that more people are losing interest as this market climbs and that any decent sized wave of selling can take the market lower pretty easy.

During the 2008 bear previous tops were confirmed when the 10,12, and 15 day moving average of volume approached the 1200 level on this chart. Unless volume picks up in the next few days as the market rises, we may be in a topping process right now.

On a positive note, in Early March the rally produced volume that was consistent with all the major down legs of 2008 (hitting 1900) showing that the rally was for real.


Watch the 1200 level on this chart. If prices start to fall as this volume curls up below the 1200 level, the rally may be confirmed over.

The title of this blog links to the live chart...